What's Up in Surgery? — Numbers · Family History as a Risk Factor

Card 1 of 28: RR by no. of affected FDRs

DisputedFamily History as a Risk Factor — Breast & Colorectal 📖 Ch 8 · Breast Surgery

RSK-BRC-FH-01

RR by no. of affected FDRs

Risk ratio by number of affected relatives (mother/sister/daughter): (99% CI 1.69–1.91) · (2.36–3.64) · (2.03–7.49) vs no affected FDR. Mother vs sister did not differ substantially

The number is concealed — recall it first, then flip the card and grade yourself honestly.

RSK-BRC-FH-01 · RR by no. of affected FDRs

first-degree · 1 FDR 1.80 · 2 FDR 2.93 · ≥3 FDR 3.90

Disputed. Sources disagree — the dispute table is on the card

Applies to — the population, exactly as printed

Individual-participant reanalysis, 52 studies, n=160,195

Dispute — the sources disagree

RR 1.80 (99% CI 1.69–1.91) · Collaborative Group, Lancet 2001 (PMID 11705483) · Individual-participant reanalysis of 52 studies; uniform FDR definition; stratified centrally · 2001
RR 2.1 (95% CI 2.0–2.2) · Pharoah et al., SR/MA 1997 (74 studies) · Pooling of published summary estimates, mixed designs incl. hospital-based case-control · 1997

Why they differ

طريقة التجميع: تجميع تقديرات منشورة جاهزة (عرضة لانحياز النشر واختلاف التعريفات بين الدراسات) مقابل إعادة تحليل البيانات الفردية بتعريف موحّد وضبط مركزي.

Registry adjudication — original Arabic; English translation pending verification

Adopted

1.80 من إعادة التحليل الفردي — وهي أيضًا الأحدث والأكبر.

Registry adjudication — original Arabic; English translation pending verification

Justification

عند تعارض تجميعين، تتقدّم إعادة تحليل البيانات الخام على تجميع الملخصات؛ والفرق (1.8 مقابل 2.1) لا يغيّر فئة خطر NICE عند أغلب الأنماط، لكن كرت المريض يُبنى على الرقم الأقوى منهجيًا.

Registry adjudication — original Arabic; English translation pending verification

Sources

Collaborative Group 2001, PMID 11705483 — dispute table A8-i (Pharoah 1997 pooled 2.1)

Grade yourself — spaced repetition

Verification stamp: 🔴 Disputed · Registry audit 2026-11-06 · Pending triple review · Surgery Code registry — family file 13 (13-family-history-risks.md), coded unit; registry audit 2026-11-06. Permalink to this card