Stauffer 2018 — merged analysis · 1.9% (95% CI 1.6–2.2) · Karydakis + Bascom cleft lift, RCT + non-RCT series · 16,349 · Modelled at 60 m · 2018
Stauffer 2018 — RCT-only tier · 10.2% (95% CI 5.4–15.0) · Same technique family, RCTs only · 1,457 · Modelled at 60 m · 2018
Why they differ
Difference in evidence tier and denominator size at the far horizon: the trial tier at 60 months is small in number with wide confidence intervals, while the pooled analysis is dominated by huge series with modelled follow-ups. The two figures come from the same paper — the disagreement is internal to the strongest source itself.
Adopted
Both figures are displayed together (by the owner's REC-01 decision approach): the pooled figure is the statistical headline (1.9% @60 m), and the trial value (10.2%) is always displayed beside it in the doctor card, and as a range wording in the patient card.
Justification
For consistency with the project's adopted approach in REC-01 (the pooled figure as headline, with the trial tier displayed), and because the pooled denominator is more than ten times larger at this horizon.